Scenario Analysis

What is Scenario Analysis? ?

Stress Testing Your Portfolio

Scenario Analysis tests how your portfolio would perform during specific historical or hypothetical market events.

Why it matters: Monte Carlo simulations are random, but real crises follow patterns. This tool shows you exactly what would happen to your portfolio during known events.

Use it to: Identify vulnerabilities, adjust allocations, and build confidence in your strategy.

Step 1: Define Your Current Portfolio ?

Current Allocation

Total Allocation: 100%

Step 2: Historical Scenarios ?

🔴 Financial Crisis 2008

Global banking collapse, housing market crash, massive deleveraging

Stocks: -40% Bonds: +5% Real Estate: -35% Commodities: -30% Cash: 0%

📈 High Inflation 1970s

Oil shocks, stagflation, rising interest rates, purchasing power erosion

Stocks: -10% Bonds: -15% Real Estate: +8% Commodities: +25% Cash: -15%

🚀 Tech Boom 1999

Dot-com bubble, irrational exuberance, technology revolution

Stocks: +60% Bonds: -3% Real Estate: +5% Commodities: -5% Cash: +2%

🦠 COVID-19 Pandemic 2020

Global lockdowns, unprecedented monetary stimulus, V-shaped recovery

Stocks: +35% (full year) Bonds: +8% Real Estate: +10% Commodities: -20% Cash: 0%

📉 Mild Recession

Economic slowdown, moderate unemployment, temporary contraction

Stocks: -20% Bonds: +3% Real Estate: -10% Commodities: -15% Cash: +1%

🟢 Strong Bull Market

Economic expansion, low unemployment, investor confidence

Stocks: +25% Bonds: -2% Real Estate: +12% Commodities: +8% Cash: +1%