What is AlphaVault AI M&A Intelligence?

AlphaVault AI M&A Intelligence is an AI-powered M&A screening platform that analyzes thousands of SEC filings (S-4 merger filings & 8-K material events) using a 6-factor probability scoring algorithm. It provides 0-100 probability scores, deal comps database, integration risk assessment, takeover premium estimates, regulatory timeline predictions, and break-up fee analysis for every M&A opportunity.

How does the 6-factor AI probability scoring work?

The AI probability scoring evaluates 6 weighted factors: (1) Form Type Relevance 30% (S-4 mergers 100 pts, 8-K Item 2.01 completion 90 pts, Item 1.01 agreements 80 pts, Item 5.02 leadership 70 pts), (2) Filing Recency 20% (last 7 days 100 pts, 14 days 90 pts, 30 days 75 pts), (3) Company Activity Level 15% (5+ filings 95 pts suggesting active M&A), (4) Filing Complexity 15% (500+ chars 90 pts indicating comprehensive details), (5) M&A Keyword Signals 15% (15+ keywords: merger, acquisition, definitive agreement, tender offer, takeover, strategic investment - high-value keywords 12 pts each), (6) 8-K Item Relevance 5% (Item 2.01 completion 100 pts, Item 1.01 agreement 90 pts, Item 5.02 leadership 70 pts). Final scores range 0-100 with thresholds: 75-100 Very High, 50-74 High, 25-49 Medium, 0-24 Low.

What M&A analytics features are included?

M&A Intelligence includes 7 advanced analytics modules: (1) M&A Probability Score calculating 0-100 likelihood based on 8-K activity, material agreements, leadership changes, board meetings, and legal counsel signals, (2) Deal Comps Database with sector-specific EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples filtered by industry, deal size, and time period (1-5 years), (3) Serial Acquirer Profiles identifying acquisition frequency, preferred deal types, and M&A patterns across Technology, Healthcare, Financial services sectors, (4) Integration Risk Score assessing 5 dimensions (cultural mismatch 25%, debt level 20%, synergy realization 25%, regulatory complexity 15%, timeline 15%), (5) Takeover Premium Calculator estimating expected premiums by sector (Technology 35%, Healthcare 30%, Financial 25%) adjusted for company size and market cap, (6) Regulatory Timeline Predictor forecasting approval timelines (FTC/DOJ 6-12 months, SEC 3 months, European Commission 9 months, CFIUS 6 months, shareholder votes 2 months), (7) Break-Up Fee Analysis evaluating deal protection mechanisms and fees vs. industry standards (2-4% of deal value).

How does the deal comps database work?

The Deal Comps Database provides access to sector-specific merger and acquisition comparables with EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. Users can filter by industry (Technology, Healthcare, Financial Services, Consumer, Industrial, Energy, Real Estate), deal size ($100M-$500M, $500M-$1B, $1B-$5B, $5B+), and time period (1-5 years historical data). The database displays comparable transactions with acquirer, target, deal value, announced date, status, and valuation multiples. This enables investors to benchmark current M&A opportunities against historical sector trends and identify premium or discount valuations.

What is the integration risk score and how is it calculated?

The Integration Risk Score assesses post-merger integration risk across 5 weighted dimensions totaling 100%: (1) Cultural Mismatch 25% - evaluates organizational culture compatibility, management style differences, and employee retention risk, (2) Debt Level 20% - analyzes combined entity leverage, debt service capacity, and refinancing requirements, (3) Synergy Realization 25% - estimates probability of achieving projected cost savings and revenue synergies, (4) Regulatory Complexity 15% - assesses antitrust review difficulty, international approval requirements, and compliance obligations, (5) Timeline 15% - evaluates deal complexity, integration planning quality, and execution timeline realism. Scores range 0-100 with lower scores indicating higher risk. Scores 0-30 indicate Low Risk, 31-50 Moderate Risk, 51-70 High Risk, 71-100 Very High Risk.

AI-Powered M&A Intelligence

M&A Deal Screening

Screen thousands of SEC filings (S-4 & 8-K) with AI probability scoring, deal comps analysis, and real-time M&A intelligence

AI Probability Scoring

6 Factors, 1 Powerful M&A Score

Our AI engine analyzes SEC filings using 6 weighted components to generate 0-100 M&A probability scores

Form Type Relevance

30% Weight

Prioritizes S-4 merger filings (100 pts) and 8-K material events (50-90 pts based on item codes: 2.01 completion, 1.01 agreements, 5.02 leadership changes).

Filing Recency

20% Weight

Gives higher scores to recent filings: 100 pts for last 7 days, 90 pts for 14 days, 75 pts for 30 days. Older filings score progressively lower.

Company Activity Level

15% Weight

Detects unusual activity patterns. Companies with 5+ filings in the period score 95 pts, suggesting active M&A processes or multiple deal stages.

Filing Detail Level

15% Weight

Analyzes document length and complexity. Longer filings (500+ chars) score up to 90 pts, indicating comprehensive merger agreements or material details.

M&A Keyword Signals

15% Weight

Scans for 15+ M&A keywords: "merger", "acquisition", "definitive agreement", "tender offer", "takeover", "strategic investment". High-value keywords score 12 pts each.

8-K Item Relevance

5% Weight

Specific to 8-K filings: Item 2.01 (completion) scores 100 pts, Item 1.01 (material agreement) 90 pts, Item 5.02 (leadership changes) 70 pts.

AI Probability Interpretation

75-100

VERY HIGH

Strong M&A signals detected

50-74

HIGH

Multiple positive indicators

25-49

MEDIUM

Some M&A activity detected

0-24

LOW

Minimal M&A signals

M&A Analytics Engine

Professional Deal Analytics

7 advanced analytics modules to screen, value, and assess M&A opportunities

M&A Probability Score

Calculate 0-100 M&A likelihood scores based on 8-K activity, material agreements, leadership changes, board meetings, and legal counsel signals.

Deal Comps Database

Access sector-specific deal comparables with EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. Filter by industry, deal size, and time period (1-5 years).

Acquirer Profiles

Identify serial acquirers by sector. Track acquisition frequency, preferred deal types, and M&A patterns across Technology, Healthcare, Financial services, and more.

Integration Risk Score

Assess post-merger integration risk across 5 dimensions: cultural mismatch (25%), debt level (20%), synergy realization (25%), regulatory complexity (15%), timeline (15%).

Takeover Premium Calculator

Estimate expected takeover premiums by sector. Technology: 35%, Healthcare: 30%, Financial: 25%. Adjusts for company size and market cap.

Regulatory Timeline

Predict approval timelines for FTC/DOJ (6-12 months), SEC (3 months), European Commission (9 months), CFIUS (6 months), and shareholder votes (2 months).

Break-Up Fee Analysis

Analyze deal protection mechanisms. Assess break-up fees vs. industry standards (2-4% of deal value). Evaluate deal termination risk.

Live Demo

See M&A Intelligence in Action

Real-time SEC filing analysis with AI probability scoring and deal recommendations

ma-predictor - AlphaVault AI

Dataset Loaded

247 M&A Filings

Period

Last 30 Days

Sources

S-4 + 8-K

TechCorp Acquisition Inc.

HIGH PROBABILITY

AI Probability Score

Form Type

S-4

Filed Date

3 days ago

CIK

0001234567

Top Signal

Form Relevance

Description: Definitive merger agreement for acquisition of CloudSolutions Inc. Deal value estimated at $2.4B with expected closing in Q2 2025. Multiple regulatory approvals required including FTC review.

AI Score Breakdown

Form Type

100/100

Recency

100/100

Activity

75/100

Complexity

90/100

Keywords

85/100

Item Code

100/100

How It Works

Screen Deals in 3 Simple Steps

From SEC EDGAR to AI-scored deals in under 10 seconds

Configure Analysis

Select time period (7, 14, 30, 60, or 90 days) and maximum filings to analyze (100, 250, 500, 1000, or 2000). System estimates loading time before starting.

AI Scoring Engine

Worker loads S-4 merger filings and 8-K material events from SEC EDGAR. AI engine calculates probability scores using 6 weighted factors in real-time.

View Recommendations

Get top 6 high-probability deals with detailed cards, full table with pagination, and click any deal to view parsed SEC document with offerings, merger info, and regulatory approvals.

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